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Abstract
Background
Purpose
Materials and Methods
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Table of Contents
New Research Reveals Who May Benefit Most From a Heart Calcium Scan
New Research Reveals Who May Benefit Most From a Heart Calcium Scan
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What we’re talking about: A new study suggests that coronary artery calcium scans are most beneficial for people at intermediate risk of heart disease.
Why this matters: Interest in CAC scans is on the rise, and cardiologists are concerned that people are being exposed to radiation unnecessarily.
What you can do: Speak to your doctor about whether a CAC scan is right for you.
People are increasingly looking to coronary artery calcium scans as a quick and painless way to learn more about their heart health risk—important information, considering heart disease is the leading cause of death in the United States. But as counterintuitive as it may seem, a recent study suggests that these scans aren’t worthwhile for everyone.
The new research found that people at borderline or intermediate risk of heart disease stand to benefit the most from CAC scans, compared with those at either high or low risk.1
Of course, every person is different, and it’s always worth consulting your primary care physician or cardiologist to determine which diagnostic tests are right for you. In the meantime, here’s what you need to know.
What Are CAC Scans?
CAC scans are non-contrast CT scans of the heart that doctors use to look for evidence of calcified plaque in the coronary arteries.2 The scans take only a few minutes and don’t require fasting or medications. That said, as CT scans, they do expose patients to a small amount of radiation.3
Doctors calculate calcium scores based on the volume and density of calcium within coronary arteries. Generally, the higher the score, the greater the risk of a heart attack.
According to Michael Wilkinson, MD, a cardiologist with UC San Diego Health, the scans can be a powerful tool for helping patients understand their heart health and potentially move forward with appropriate interventions. “There’s a big difference between seeing a number from a lipid panel and seeing calcified plaque in your arteries, and sometimes, that really goes a long way,” he said.
Why Did Researchers Want to Examine CAC Scans?
Patient interest in CAC scans has sharply increased over the years, in part because an increasing number of health centers now offer them without a prescription or physician order.4 But easier access has also raised concern among cardiologists that some people might be getting them unnecessarily. The tests might be simple, but they still involve radiation.
That unease prompted Nilay S. Shah, MD, MPH, an assistant professor of cardiology at Northwestern University Feinberg School of Medicine, to conduct the new study.
“The idea and the motivation for the research was to better understand who best would benefit from getting the information from a calcium scan, and how should we most appropriately be using them,” Shah said.
Shah and his team specifically wanted to know whether adding calcium scoring to the American Heart Association-recommended PREVENT equation to calculate 10-year risk for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) would improve the model’s performance. PREVENT scores consider factors such as blood pressure, age, and cholesterol to estimate a person’s 10- and 30-year risk of developing heart disease, including atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease and heart failure.5
For high-risk patients, Shah said the next step is often clear: taking a statin to lower cholesterol. But for people at borderline risk, deciding whether to take action can be less straightforward based on the score alone.
The new study “is an example of people trying to get into the nuances of how these risk scores will perform if you add things like imaging,” said Eugene Yang, MD, MS, FACC, a cardiologist and professor of cardiology and medicine at the University of Washington School of Medicine, who was not involved with the study.
How Did the Study Work, and What Did It Find?
To test how effectively calcium scoring can complement PREVENT-ASCVD scores in predicting cardiovascular risk, Shah’s team used data from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis, a long-term research project sponsored by the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute that’s tracked the coronary health of more than 6,800 male and female participants from various racial backgrounds since 2000.
The researchers worked in two stages. During the first phase, they used the PREVENT-ASCVD equations to divide participants into low, borderline, intermediate, and high-risk categories. Then, they added participants’ calcium scores to the model to see if that yielded more accurate predictions than just the PREVENT-ASCVD equations alone.
In this case, adding calcium scores didn’t make much difference. But then in the second phase, the team zoomed in on participants with borderline and intermediate risk. This time, Shah said, “we had a much more substantial reclassification.”
In other words, the researchers found that calcium scans did little to enhance predictions for participants at high and low risk, but it provided valuable information for those with borderline to intermediate risk.
As all three experts pointed out, a central limitation of this study is that it followed one particular group of people, which means it may not fully represent all groups. For that reason, Wilkinson said, “It’ll be important to see something like this replicated in other cohorts.”
Since the research project began more than 20 years ago, Shah added, the health of the general population has changed, so the findings may not reflect today’s population. However, the tradeoff was that researchers were able to examine outcomes over a long period of time.
What This Means For You
Whatever your estimated risk or intervention you’re considering, it’s crucial to speak with your doctor. Guidelines and research can provide a framework for care, Shah said, “but it’s really important that every patient and their clinician has a risk-benefit discussion for shared decision-making.”
That said, Shah recommends CAC testing for people at borderline or intermediate risk—meaning their estimated 10-year risk falls between 3% and 10%—echoing guidance from the American Heart Association.2When those patients are unsure about taking a statin, he said, “A calcium score would be useful because it kind of breaks the tie.”
Wilkinson, however, thinks people on the cusp shouldn’t necessarily rule themselves out. “I think for even those patients who fall maybe a little bit outside of those 10-year risk estimates, using calcium scoring to personalize their risk assessment can be very helpful,” Wilkinson said.
Keep in mind that even eligible patients may not have their CAC scan covered by insurance. According to the American Heart Association, the test usually costs $50 to $250 without insurance.3
It’s also important to discuss your results with a qualified clinician—even if you got the scan without a prescription. This is especially important if the results are abnormal, Yang said, as patients “really need to make sure that they have somebody that can appropriately follow up with them.”






Every doctor is familiar with the necessary debate in modern medicine over our heavy reliance on scanners. Imaging has become the diagnostic workhorse across most specialties, leading purists to rightly point out the erosion of traditional clinical skills amongst new generations of doctors.
They often romanticise an era when a patient’s history and physical examination held immense diagnostic power, and it is easy to understand the appeal of this nostalgia: It recalls a time when physicians were viewed as almost superhuman by patients and society, capable of waltzing into a cubicle and uncovering complex pathology with nothing more than a hand placed on an abdomen or a listen to the chest. Sending a patient to the radiology department for the answer doesn’t quite have the same gravitas for the doctor.
Others may cry out at the risks of ionising radiation, the strain on the healthcare system, and the psychologic burden of the incidental finding. But for all attempts to reduce our proclivity to lean on imaging, demand continues to climb. The Royal College of Radiologists’ 2024 workforce census found that CT and MRI examinations in England rose by 8% in 2023-24, while the UK’s consultant radiology workforce grew by 4.7%.
So is overreliance on the scanner really the problem?
When we begin to stack the above factors against the monumental risks associated with going under the scalpel (such as intraoperative risks, hospital-acquired infections, anaesthetic complications, and severe psychological distress), the case for withholding a scan begins to shrink dramatically. In this piece, I make the case that where surgery is the alternative, the greater risk lies in scanning too little.
The Prospect of Surgery
The prospect of surgery is perhaps one of the most anxiety-inducing moments a patient can face.
From the anaesthetist’s cocktail of paralytics and hypnotics awaiting them in the induction room to the trauma of the surgery itself and the gruelling uphill battle of postoperative recovery, it is an immense psychological and physical toll to ask from any human being. As clinicians, it is our duty to make every conceivable effort to minimise the necessity of surgical intervention.
Historically, however, clinical medicine was forced to operate within a necessary margin of error.
Before high-fidelity imaging became so readily accessible, we simply could not afford the luxury of absolute certainty. We took histories to the best of our ability, palpated abdomens, scrutinised blood results, and made educated leaps of faith. But clinical intuition, even at its best, is never an exact science — it deals with probabilities rather than certainties.
This uncertainty steered countless patients to undergo surgeries they didn’t actually need. Laparoscopies that showed a healthy appendix, or exploratory laparotomies that opened the abdomen only to close it again, were seen as acceptable trade-offs to prevent fatal complications like sepsis and perforation.
The Reign of Radiology
Cross-sectional imaging has completely rewritten this contract. Think about this for a moment: We now possess the ability to readily visualise almost every recess and corner of the human anatomy noninvasively, in three dimensions, and at a good resolution. Oh, and all while the patient lies comfortably awake on the table with no need for analgesia or sedation.
When the case is laid out this way, is it any wonder that the on-call radiology registrar’s phone is never silent?
But with those surgical risks that we covered in mind, it might be time to flip the original question on its head: What if the problem isn’t that we rely on the scanner too much, but that we use it too little?
The Cost of a 5% Margin of Error
Consider the classic surgical presentation of an acute abdomen. Imagine we use a highly validated clinical scoring system, such as the Alvarado score, for a patient presenting with right iliac fossa pain. The score in our hypothetical patient suggests a 95% likelihood of acute appendicitis. Most doctors would tell you that this is a strong mandate for a trip to the operating theatre.
But we need to touch on the inverse of that statistic: a 5% margin of error.
This means that 1 in 20 patients presenting with these exact clinical variables as our patient will be subjected to an entirely unnecessary surgery. We must ask ourselves a difficult, almost paradigm-shifting question: Can a 5% negative appendicectomy rate ever truly be acceptable in an era where a CT scan can definitively rule it out within minutes?
When we hold the power to eliminate that 1-in-20 risk for surgical morbidity with something as simple as a scan, opting for surgery based on probability alone begins to feel more like an antiquated gamble. So, it seems that the balance of risk has fundamentally shifted in modern medicine. Although we should try to minimise radiation exposure, particularly in more radiosensitive younger patients, the potential harm of an unnecessary operation may outweigh the small long-term risk associated with a clinically justified, modern low-dose CT abdomen.
Needless to say, this is not a call to abandon the clinical examination, nor is it an endorsement of defensive, thoughtless medicine. The history and physical exam remain the crucial foundation that guides the need for imaging and tells the reporting radiologist where to look. But when it comes to the final decision to open the human body, imaging has fundamentally changed how we approach risk for our patients.
Arya Anthony Kamyab is a speciality trainee doctor in clinical radiology working in Oxford University Hospitals. You can follow him on Substack and on Instagram @aryak.writes.