The 5% Gamble: Why We Should Scan Before We Operate

The 5% Gamble: Why We Should Scan Before We Operate

photo of Arya Kamyab
Arya Anthony Kamyab

Every doctor is familiar with the necessary debate in modern medicine over our heavy reliance on scanners. Imaging has become the diagnostic workhorse across most specialties, leading purists to rightly point out the erosion of traditional clinical skills amongst new generations of doctors.

They often romanticise an era when a patient’s history and physical examination held immense diagnostic power, and it is easy to understand the appeal of this nostalgia: It recalls a time when physicians were viewed as almost superhuman by patients and society, capable of waltzing into a cubicle and uncovering complex pathology with nothing more than a hand placed on an abdomen or a listen to the chest. Sending a patient to the radiology department for the answer doesn’t quite have the same gravitas for the doctor.

Others may cry out at the risks of ionising radiation, the strain on the healthcare system, and the psychologic burden of the incidental finding. But for all attempts to reduce our proclivity to lean on imaging, demand continues to climb. The Royal College of Radiologists’ 2024 workforce census found that CT and MRI examinations in England rose by 8% in 2023-24, while the UK’s consultant radiology workforce grew by 4.7%.

So is overreliance on the scanner really the problem?

Article Key Points
  • Imaging can prevent unnecessary surgery when clinical probability is high but not definitive.
  • Acute abdomen decisions often hinge on small residual uncertainty; 5% error may still mean avoidable operations.
  • Negative appendicectomy risk = 1 in 20 when acting on score-based probability alone.
  • Low-dose CT abdomen can rapidly rule out appendicitis, potentially reducing surgical morbidity.
  • Hx/physical exam remain essential for imaging selection; imaging should refine, not replace, clinical assessment.
Dive Deeper
Which appendicitis scores best reduce negative appendicectomy?
How accurate is low-dose CT for appendicitis exclusion?
What are CT risks in younger acute abdomen patients?

When we begin to stack the above factors against the monumental risks associated with going under the scalpel (such as intraoperative risks, hospital-acquired infections, anaesthetic complications, and severe psychological distress), the case for withholding a scan begins to shrink dramatically. In this piece, I make the case that where surgery is the alternative, the greater risk lies in scanning too little.

The Prospect of Surgery

The prospect of surgery is perhaps one of the most anxiety-inducing moments a patient can face.

From the anaesthetist’s cocktail of paralytics and hypnotics awaiting them in the induction room to the trauma of the surgery itself and the gruelling uphill battle of postoperative recovery, it is an immense psychological and physical toll to ask from any human being. As clinicians, it is our duty to make every conceivable effort to minimise the necessity of surgical intervention.

Historically, however, clinical medicine was forced to operate within a necessary margin of error.

Before high-fidelity imaging became so readily accessible, we simply could not afford the luxury of absolute certainty. We took histories to the best of our ability, palpated abdomens, scrutinised blood results, and made educated leaps of faith. But clinical intuition, even at its best, is never an exact science — it deals with probabilities rather than certainties.

This uncertainty steered countless patients to undergo surgeries they didn’t actually need. Laparoscopies that showed a healthy appendix, or exploratory laparotomies that opened the abdomen only to close it again, were seen as acceptable trade-offs to prevent fatal complications like sepsis and perforation.

The Reign of Radiology

Cross-sectional imaging has completely rewritten this contract. Think about this for a moment: We now possess the ability to readily visualise almost every recess and corner of the human anatomy noninvasively, in three dimensions, and at a good resolution. Oh, and all while the patient lies comfortably awake on the table with no need for analgesia or sedation.

When the case is laid out this way, is it any wonder that the on-call radiology registrar’s phone is never silent?

But with those surgical risks that we covered in mind, it might be time to flip the original question on its head: What if the problem isn’t that we rely on the scanner too much, but that we use it too little?

The Cost of a 5% Margin of Error

Consider the classic surgical presentation of an acute abdomen. Imagine we use a highly validated clinical scoring system, such as the Alvarado score, for a patient presenting with right iliac fossa pain. The score in our hypothetical patient suggests a 95% likelihood of acute appendicitis. Most doctors would tell you that this is a strong mandate for a trip to the operating theatre.

But we need to touch on the inverse of that statistic: a 5% margin of error.

This means that 1 in 20 patients presenting with these exact clinical variables as our patient will be subjected to an entirely unnecessary surgery. We must ask ourselves a difficult, almost paradigm-shifting question: Can a 5% negative appendicectomy rate ever truly be acceptable in an era where a CT scan can definitively rule it out within minutes?

When we hold the power to eliminate that 1-in-20 risk for surgical morbidity with something as simple as a scan, opting for surgery based on probability alone begins to feel more like an antiquated gamble. So, it seems that the balance of risk has fundamentally shifted in modern medicine. Although we should try to minimise radiation exposure, particularly in more radiosensitive younger patients, the potential harm of an unnecessary operation may outweigh the small long-term risk associated with a clinically justified, modern low-dose CT abdomen.

Needless to say, this is not a call to abandon the clinical examination, nor is it an endorsement of defensive, thoughtless medicine. The history and physical exam remain the crucial foundation that guides the need for imaging and tells the reporting radiologist where to look. But when it comes to the final decision to open the human body, imaging has fundamentally changed how we approach risk for our patients.

Arya Anthony Kamyab is a speciality trainee doctor in clinical radiology working in Oxford University Hospitals. You can follow him on Substack and on Instagram @aryak.writes. 

Is Photon-Counting CT the Next Big Thing in Cardiac Imaging?

Is Photon-Counting CT the Next Big Thing in Cardiac Imaging?

The radiology department is seeing cardiac tissue a whole lot clearer with the emerging use of photon-counting CT (PCCT) scanners. That means better diagnosis, better prevention, and broader eligibility for patients with cardiac disease who were previously unscannable, according to experts.

“We are coming into a new era in accuracy, and the implications are profound,” Arthur Shiyovich, MD, from Brigham and Women’s Hospital and Harvard Medical School in Boston, told Medscape Medical News. Most importantly, that accuracy will significantly reduce downstream testing for cardiac disease, he said.

In his recent editorial in JACC, Shiyovich described PCCT as “transforming cardiac CT from a primarily anatomic modality into a multidimensional imaging platform capable of integrating coronary assessment, cardiac structure and function, and myocardial tissue characterization.” For patients with implanted devices or claustrophobia, or an inability to stay still for longer scan times, or who are on a long waitlist, PCCT is a new option, “and may be further enhanced by emerging deep learning-based reconstruction and analysis techniques,” he added.

Arthur Shiyovich, MD
Arthur Shiyovich, MD

Conventional CT machines have improved with higher speed, lower radiation, and larger coverage, but detection has not improved because of electrical signal loss during two-step image conversion, whereby an x-ray must first be converted to light and then into an electrical signal. For patients with dense calcium, coronary stents, or other metal implants, the signal loss during conversion results in image distortion, causing “blooming” and blurring artifacts, which makes scans difficult to read. These patients are not considered good candidates for CT scanning and instead are sent to the cath lab for stress tests or scanned using other modalities (such as MRI) that involve lengthy wait times.

Article Key Points
  • PCCT improves coronary detail; ↓ blooming/blur from calcium, stents, metal.
  • Thin slices 0.2 mm vs 0.6 mm; better vessel boundary and plaque characterization.
  • Studies show ↓ stenosis overestimation; CAD-RADS downgraded in ~50% of cases.
  • PCCT may reduce downstream CAG/cath lab referrals; better revascularization selection.
  • Limits: high cost, contrast still needed; 0.2-mm scans may not lower radiation.
Dive Deeper
How does PCCT affect FFR-CT accuracy in severe coronary calcification?
Which coronary stent types remain difficult on PCCT imaging?
What are long-term outcomes after PCCT-guided CAD downclassification?

PCCT scanners count photons and convert them directly to an electrical signal, making it possible to identify tissue. Each photon is then sorted into a so-called “bin,” making it possible to construct images that include or exclude stents, metal, plaque, calcium, muscle and other tissue, or implants. The technology makes heart vessel boundaries appear clear, identifiable, and measurable and high-risk fatty plaque visible behind calcification, research showed.

What’s more, PCCT is capable of capturing a very thin slice of tissue, 0.2 mm, compared with 0.6 mm for conventional CT, so objects very close together can now be viewed separately and measured more accurately.

“Everyone in the field is really excited about this technology,” Todd C. Villines, MD, from the University of Virginia in Charlottesville and executive editor ofJACC: Advances, told Medscape Medical News.

“Our biggest challenge is artefacts and blooming…. This is really going to reduce inappropriate trips to the cath lab as we become more accurate and confident.”

Dr. Todd Villines
Todd C. Villines, MD

Villines said the scope of advancement that PCCT technology offers continually surprises specialists. During SCCT2026, a “Stump the Masters, Stump the Professor” case involved a patient with cardiac disease who was sent to the cath lab whose tests came back normal. “All of us focused on the main artery,” Villines explained. However, when they looked at the patient’s PCCT scan, “we saw one of these tiny little septal branches was occluded — those are usually too small to interpret.”

“The PCCT was more accurate than CAG [coronary angiography] and better than invasive angiography by a lot; this really highlighted the strength of this technology,” he said.

“We now know when we call it a stenosis, you actually have a stenosis — particularly for those patients with stents.” Ultimately, Villines said that PCCT will lead to fewer complications and inappropriate procedures and better patient care.

Diagnosis Downgraded With PCCT

New data showed that PCCT is more accurate in quantifying plaques, reducing overdiagnosis. Conventional scanners overestimate plaques because of “blooming,” as reported in a 2025 article in Radiology. In 48 patients scanned, lower plaque volume was seen with ultrahigh-resolution PCCT than in energy-integrating detector CT (724 mm3 vs 10,853 mm3). Better reproducibility was also reported using PCCT.

The same researchers reported decreased overestimation of luminal narrowing with dense calcification and lower plaque-measured stenosis when scanning with PCCT vs conventional CT, all leading to downgraded Coronary Artery Disease-Reporting and Data System (CAD-RADS) scores in about half of 49 patients.

With these and other study results showing more accurate readings with PCCT, “there’s a good chance we’ll see new guidelines in the future,” Shiyovich said.

In a retrospective study his team published early this year, PCCT scans with fractional flow reserve (FFR)-CT showed that asymptomatic patients with extreme calcium (coronary artery calcium score > 1000) do not necessarily have flow-limiting disease. Of the 19 patients scanned, four underwent intracoronary angiography, one with a CAD-RADS score of 5 underwent coronary artery bypass grafting, two with a CAD-RADS score of 3 with negative FFR-CT were found to have nonobstructive CAD, and one with a CAD-RADS score of 4 was found to have moderate stenosis and a negative instantaneous wave-free ratio (0.92). No patients underwent percutaneous coronary intervention.

“Our current scanners overestimate volume of calcium,” Villines said. “Photon-counting CT really has taught us to see calcified plaque with noncalcified for the first time.” More accuracy means better diagnosis. Even the software that interprets scans will offer better data. “If what you’re putting into the software is higher quality, you get better output.”

Photon-counting computed tomography (PCCT) of the heart.

In a recent meta-analysis, stenosis was downclassified in severity in 34.2% of vessels when scanning with PCCT compared with conventional CT (95% CI, 27.3-41.9; P < .0001). The study authors attributed this to a reduction in blooming and better resolution. The study also reported fewer downstream invasive CAG referrals for PCCT scans than for conventional CT scans (pooled odds ratio [OR], 0.71; 95% CI, 0.63-0.79; P < .0001) and significantly higher rates of revascularization among those undergoing invasive CAG (OR, 1.43; 95% CI, 1.14-1.79; P = .0017).

Similarly, a single-center retrospective study comparing nearly 4000 PCCT scans with CT scans found lesser use of CAG with PCCT than with CT (9.9% vs 13.1% of the time; P < .001). PCCT patients tended to be referred more appropriately because they were more likely to ultimately undergo revascularization than patients scanned with conventional CT.

PCCT: A Pricey Integration to Clinic

The FDA first cleared the use of PCCT in September 2021, a few months after the first human cardiac scan was met with a round of applause by researchers at Mayo Clinic in Rochester, Minnesota. Shiyovich estimated that about 100 PCCT scanners are now operational across the US and about 200 are now operational around the world. He expects PCCT to become the gold standard within a decade or two.

In spring this year, the FDA cleared the first portable PCCT designed for musculoskeletal imaging in the community by a New Zealand-based medical device company. The FDA pointed to lower radiation, ultrahigh spatial resolution, sharp bone detail, and lower electronic noise offered by the scanner.

The $5 million sticker cost is still prohibitive for many sites. In addition, there is an upfront cost for the technological infrastructure needed to support higher-resolution image storage and the increased bandwidth it takes to transfer these images.

The PCCT Bottom Line

There are some imaging issues that PCCT does not solve, Shiyovich pointed out. PCCT can be performed with potentially lower radiation (for 0.4-mm scans), but the ultrahigh-resolution images (0.2-mm scans) require comparable radiation. He noted that PCCT does not eliminate the need for contrast, which is an issue for patients with allergies or kidney disease. “Breath holding and heart rate control still need to be considered,” he added.

For the clinician, there’s no added reimbursement and it’s a bit more complicated for the reader, Villines told Medscape Medical News. But aside from affordability, “there’s no downside. It’s very state of the art…. We are excited about it.”

Villines reported leading clinical trials for Abcentra, Cleerly, HeartFlow, and Milestone Pharmaceuticals. Shiyovich reported being a paid consultant for Artrya Ltd and receiving honoraria from Pfizer. 

Performance of Photon-counting CT for Assessing Pretreatment Breast Cancer: Comparison with Mammography, MRI, and 18F-FDG PET/CT

Abstract

Background

Photon-counting CT (PCCT) offers improved spatial resolution, contrast to noise ratio, and dose efficiency, but its clinical utility remains incompletely defined for breast cancer.

Purpose

To evaluate the feasibility of PCCT for pretreatment breast cancer assessment through comparisons with MRI, full-field digital mammography (FFDM), and fluorine 18 (18F) fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) PET/CT.

Materials and Methods

In this prospective study (March–May 2025), female participants with breast lesions categorized as Breast Imaging Reporting and Data System 4C or higher at US or FFDM underwent breast MRI and multiphasic contrast-enhanced PCCT. 18F-FDG PET/CT was performed in a subset with locally advanced disease. Four radiologists independently evaluated lesion morphologic characteristics, additional findings, and clinical TNM stage. Agreement was analyzed using intraclass correlation coefficients (ICCs) and κ statistics. The diagnostic performance for additional lesions and nodal metastasis was compared with the reference standard (pathologic examination).

Results

Among 126 participants (mean age, 58.1 years ± 12.3 [SD]), interreader agreement across PCCT, MRI, and FFDM was good to excellent. PCCT agreed with MRI for lesion characterization (κ = 0.57–0.96) and clinical T categorization (κ = 0.86–0.88), with highest agreement with pathologic size (ICC, 0.70–0.81). For 46 pathologically confirmed additional lesions, PCCT was more sensitive than FFDM (difference, 44% [95% CI: 19, 66]) and similar to MRI (difference, 7% [95% CI: −5, 21]). Additionally, 44% (95% CI: 27, 52) of microcalcifications were missed at PCCT versus FFDM. For pathologically confirmed nodal metastasis, PCCT was more sensitive (difference, 10% [95% CI: 1, 20]) and accurate (difference, 6% [95% CI: 1, 11]) than MRI. For clinical N category, PCCT agreed with PET/CT (κ = 0.82 [95% CI: 0.62, 0.96]; n = 19). Two distant metastases identified at PCCT were consistent with 18F-FDG PET/CT and pathologic findings.

Conclusion

PCCT demonstrated similar performance to MRI for lesion characterization and detection of additional lesions, with better performance for nodal metastasis evaluation; however, detection of microcalcifications was limited.
© RSNA, 2026
Supplemental material is available for this article.
See also the editorial by Meeuwis and Dorrius in this issue.

Visual Abstract

Photon-Counting Detector CT Reduces Calcium Overestimation Compared With Energy-Integrating Detector CT

Photon-Counting Detector CT Reduces Calcium Overestimation Compared With Energy-Integrating Detector CT

Micro-CT Validation in Cadaveric Arteries

Table of Contents

Abstract and Introduction

Beyond luminal stenosis assessment, contemporary coronary computed tomography angiography has evolved into a comprehensive tool for plaque characterization.[1,2] Coronary calcification is of particular clinical importance, as it can adversely affect the diagnostic performance of coronary computed tomography angiography through blooming artifacts related to partial volume aver-aging, beam hardening, and motion artifact, leading to systematic overestimation of coronary calcium and stenosis severity.[3]

Photon-counting detector computed tomography(PCD-CT) represents a fundamental technological advance over conventional energy-integrating detector computed tomography (EID-CT), offering higher spatial resolution and reduced blooming artifacts,[4] enhancing visualization of coronary anatomy and plaque characteristics, particularly calcified plaques.[5,6,7,8] A prior study suggested less overestimation of calcium volume with PCD-CT compared with EID-CT[9]; however, quantitative assessment of multiple calcium metrics and measurement behavior across both modalities has not been rigorously validated.

Accordingly, using human cadaveric coronary arteries, we sought to evaluate and directly compare scanner-related bias and measurement error in coronary calcium assessment between PCD-CT and EID-CT using micro–computed tomography (micro-CT) as the near-histologic resolution reference standard.

Methods

Native coronary arteries from 10 cadavers were harvested after fixation. Specimens were scanned using EID-CT (Revolution Apex 256, GE Healthcare; tube voltage 140 kVp; voxel size 0.488 × 0.488 × 0.625 mm;medium smooth kernel), PCD-CT (Naeotom Alpha, Siemens Healthineers; ultra-high-resolution mode;140 kVp; 0.265 × 0.265 × 0.2 mm; Bv68 kernel), and micro-CT (SkyScan, Bruker; 130 kVp; 0.008 × 0.008 ×0.008 mm). Matrix size was 512 × 512 for both clinical CTs and 2,240 × 2,240 for micro-CT

CT images were analyzed using Dragonfly 3DWorld (Comet Technologies Canada Inc) by 2 blinded investigators. Cross-sections were coregistered across modalities using anatomic landmarks and visual cues, and maximum thickness and area were measured manually. Calcium volume was quantified using semiautomated segmentation, with thresholds derived from manual delineation of calcified plaque. Mean attenuation (Hounsfield units [HU]) was measured within the segmented calcium regions.

Correlation and agreement with micro-CT were assessed using Pearson correlation and Lin’s concordance correlation coefficient. Relative error was calculated as (clinical CT error with PCD-CT compared with EID-CT. Agreement and bias were further evaluated using Bland-Altman analysis, with proportional bias assessed by regression of the differences on the mean. Generalized additive models with thin-plate splines were used to model measurement error as a function of mean HU, and the effective degrees of freedom were reported.

This study did not include living human subjects; therefore, institutional review board approval was not required.

Results

Fifteen coronary arteries with 45 calcified lesions were analyzed, yielding 309 coregistered cross-sections. Interobserver agreement was excellent for all measurements (intraclass correlation coefficients >0.9).

Both clinical CT modalities demonstrated strong correlation with micro-CT (Figure 1A); however, concordance was consistently higher for PCD-CT compared with EID-CT for maximum thickness(0.79 vs 0.63), area (0.88 vs 0.63), and volume (0.91vs 0.67) (all P < 0.001).

Both modalities overestimated calcium measurements relative to micro-CT; however, the magnitude of overestimation and relative error were consistently lower with PCD-CT (all P < 0.001)(Figure 1B), corresponding to median relative error reductions of 52.9% (IQR: 31.0%-73.1%) for maximum thickness, 66.7% (IQR: 43.0%-84.4%) for area, and 66.9% (IQR: 51.6%-84.9%) for volume. Bland-Altman analysis further demonstrated lower systematic bias and narrower limits of agreement with PCD-CT (Figure 1A).

Measurement error increased with calcium size for both modalities (proportional bias coefficients [ß]>0 for all measures; P < 0.001). This size-dependent bias was attenuated with PCD-CT compared with EID-CT, particularly for area (ß: 0.32 vs 0.56; P < 0.001)and volume (ß: 0.35 vs 0.75; P < 0.001).

PCD-CT demonstrated lower calcium attenuation compared with EID-CT (Figure 1C). Measurement error increased with calcium density for both scanners; however, the error-HU relationship differed significantly between scanners (P-interaction < 0.001)and PCD-CT exhibited a more linear and predictable relationship, whereas EID-CT showed more pronounced nonlinearity, reflected by higher effective degrees of freedom (Figure 1D).

Expand

JACC
Figure 1 Comparative Analysis of PCD-CT and EID-CT in the Evaluation of Coronary Calcium Using Micro-CT as a Reference Standard

(A) Scatter plots (left 2 columns) show the relationship between clinical CT and micro-CT calcium measurements, with regression lines (red) and the line of identity (gray, dotted). Bland-Altman plots (right 2 columns) display mean bias (red, dotted) and limits of agreement (blue, dotted). (B) Violin plots of relative error for clinical CT compared with micro-CT for maximum thickness, area, and volume. Data are presented as median (IQR); P values compare PCD-CT and EID-CT. (C) Differences in calcium attenuation (HU) between PCD-CT and EID-CT in coregistered cross-sections are shown using paired box plots. Boxes represent the median and IQR, with whiskers extending to 1.5 × IQR. (D) Generalized additive models with thin-plate splines showing the relationship between clinical CT measurement error (referenced to micro-CT) and calcium attenuation (HU). (E) Representative coregistered cross-sections across micro-CT, PCD-CT, and EID-CT are shown. Density maps (rainbow scale) depict attenuation gradients (green-yellow: 130-500 HU; orange-red: 500-1,000 HU; deep red: >1,000 HU). The first row illustrates eccentric fragmented calcification: micro-CT demonstrates 2 distinct fragments that are less clearly resolved on clinical CT, particularly EID-CT due to blooming, whereas a focal low-attenuation region is better appreciated on PCD-CT and density maps. The second row shows concentric calcification: PCD-CT reduces overestimation and reveals intraplaque heterogeneity, with density maps suggesting a less dense component, which is not apparent on EID-CT. The third row demonstrates thin, “eggshell” calcification: PCD-CT shows closer agreement with micro-CT, with improved delineation of low-attenuation regions, whereas EID-CT appears more confluent. CCC = concordance correlation coefficient; CT = computed tomography; EDF = effective degrees of freedom; EID-CT = energy-integrating detector computed tomography; HU = Hounsfield unit; micro-CT = micro–computed tomography; PCD-CT = photon-counting detector computed tomography.

Discussion

In this cadaveric validation study using micro-CT as anear-histologic reference, PCD-CT demonstrated superior quantitative accuracy for coronary calcium assessment compared with EID-CT. Although both modalities systematically overestimated calcium measurements, PCD-CT significantly reduced measurement error and improved agreement.

We also observed proportional bias, with increasing overestimation in larger and denser plaques, likely reflecting expansion of blooming arti-facts; this effect was attenuated with PCD-CT. In addition, PCD-CT demonstrated a more stable and predictable relationship between calcium density and measurement error. Lower mean attenuation values observed with PCD-CT may reflect improved photon energy resolution, reduced beam-hardening effects, and enhanced detection of mixed plaque composition (Figure 1E). Although these findings are hypothesis-generating, the observed differences in attenuation and measurement error behavior be-tween the 2 CT modalities highlight the need for further studies evaluating threshold-based classification for calcium scoring and plaque segmentation in the PCD-CT era.

Our results suggest that PCD-CT may enable more accurate characterization of calcified lesions(Figure 1E), particularly in complex plaques, with potential to improve prediction of lesion behavior during percutaneous coronary intervention and inform the need for advanced calcium modification techniques, while also enhancing assessment of stenosis severity and its downstream clinical implications.[10] Despite these advances, it could not fully resolve heterogeneous or fragmented calcium structures observed on micro-CT, underscoring inherent resolution constraints. Future work integrating spatial and density-based plaque characterization may provide additional insights beyond conventional calcium quantification.

Several limitations should be acknowledged. First, measurements may be influenced by operator-dependent segmentation and window settings, although interobserver agreement was excellent and standardized methods were applied. Second, imaging was performed without intraluminal contrast, as this is not feasible with micro-CT, limiting lumen assessment and evaluation of potential incremental benefits of PCD-CT in contrast-enhanced settings; however, this is less likely to materially affect comparative calcium measurements. Third, the ex vivo design does not account for in vivo factors such as motion, contrast dynamics, or surrounding tissues. Fourth, noncalcified plaque was not evaluated, and the impact of virtual monoenergetic image reconstruction at different energy levels warrants further study. Finally, the sample size was modest, particularly for volumetric analyses.

PCD-CT significantly reduces overestimation of coronary calcium compared with EID-CT, achieving approximately 60% lower measurement error relative to micro-CT. Although the observed attenuation of size-dependent proportional bias and the more stable measurement behavior across HU values with PCD-CT are hypothesis-generating, PCD-CT demonstrated greater accuracy, supporting its potential clinical advantage in evaluating heavily calcified coronary lesions.

References

New Research Reveals Who May Benefit Most From a Heart Calcium Scan

New Research Reveals Who May Benefit Most From a Heart Calcium Scan

Right coronary artery visualized by frontal thoracic angiography. (Photo by: CAVALLINI JAMES/BSIP/Universal Images Group via Getty Images)
CAC scans examine the amount of calcium deposits within arteries, helping to predict heart attack risk.
BSIP / Contributor / Getty Images

 

What we’re talking about: A new study suggests that coronary artery calcium scans are most beneficial for people at intermediate risk of heart disease.

Why this matters: Interest in CAC scans is on the rise, and cardiologists are concerned that people are being exposed to radiation unnecessarily.

What you can do: Speak to your doctor about whether a CAC scan is right for you.

People are increasingly looking to coronary artery calcium scans as a quick and painless way to learn more about their heart health risk—important information, considering heart disease is the leading cause of death in the United States. But as counterintuitive as it may seem, a recent study suggests that these scans aren’t worthwhile for everyone.

The new research found that people at borderline or intermediate risk of heart disease stand to benefit the most from CAC scans, compared with those at either high or low risk.1

Of course, every person is different, and it’s always worth consulting your primary care physician or cardiologist to determine which diagnostic tests are right for you. In the meantime, here’s what you need to know.

What Are CAC Scans?

CAC scans are non-contrast CT scans of the heart that doctors use to look for evidence of calcified plaque in the coronary arteries.2 The scans take only a few minutes and don’t require fasting or medications. That said, as CT scans, they do expose patients to a small amount of radiation.3

Doctors calculate calcium scores based on the volume and density of calcium within coronary arteries. Generally, the higher the score, the greater the risk of a heart attack.

According to Michael Wilkinson, MD, a cardiologist with UC San Diego Health, the scans can be a powerful tool for helping patients understand their heart health and potentially move forward with appropriate interventions. “There’s a big difference between seeing a number from a lipid panel and seeing calcified plaque in your arteries, and sometimes, that really goes a long way,” he said.

Why Did Researchers Want to Examine CAC Scans?

Patient interest in CAC scans has sharply increased over the years, in part because an increasing number of health centers now offer them without a prescription or physician order.4 But easier access has also raised concern among cardiologists that some people might be getting them unnecessarily. The tests might be simple, but they still involve radiation.

That unease prompted Nilay S. Shah, MD, MPH, an assistant professor of cardiology at Northwestern University Feinberg School of Medicine, to conduct the new study.

“The idea and the motivation for the research was to better understand who best would benefit from getting the information from a calcium scan, and how should we most appropriately be using them,” Shah said.

Shah and his team specifically wanted to know whether adding calcium scoring to the American Heart Association-recommended PREVENT equation to calculate 10-year risk for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) would improve the model’s performance. PREVENT scores consider factors such as blood pressure, age, and cholesterol to estimate a person’s 10- and 30-year risk of developing heart disease, including atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease and heart failure.5

For high-risk patients, Shah said the next step is often clear: taking a statin to lower cholesterol. But for people at borderline risk, deciding whether to take action can be less straightforward based on the score alone.

The new study “is an example of people trying to get into the nuances of how these risk scores will perform if you add things like imaging,” said Eugene Yang, MD, MS, FACC, a cardiologist and professor of cardiology and medicine at the University of Washington School of Medicine, who was not involved with the study.

How Did the Study Work, and What Did It Find?

To test how effectively calcium scoring can complement PREVENT-ASCVD scores in predicting cardiovascular risk, Shah’s team used data from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis, a long-term research project sponsored by the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute that’s tracked the coronary health of more than 6,800 male and female participants from various racial backgrounds since 2000.

The researchers worked in two stages. During the first phase, they used the PREVENT-ASCVD equations to divide participants into low, borderline, intermediate, and high-risk categories. Then, they added participants’ calcium scores to the model to see if that yielded more accurate predictions than just the PREVENT-ASCVD equations alone.

In this case, adding calcium scores didn’t make much difference. But then in the second phase, the team zoomed in on participants with borderline and intermediate risk. This time, Shah said, “we had a much more substantial reclassification.”

In other words, the researchers found that calcium scans did little to enhance predictions for participants at high and low risk, but it provided valuable information for those with borderline to intermediate risk.

As all three experts pointed out, a central limitation of this study is that it followed one particular group of people, which means it may not fully represent all groups. For that reason, Wilkinson said, “It’ll be important to see something like this replicated in other cohorts.”

Since the research project began more than 20 years ago, Shah added, the health of the general population has changed, so the findings may not reflect today’s population. However, the tradeoff was that researchers were able to examine outcomes over a long period of time.

What This Means For You

Whatever your estimated risk or intervention you’re considering, it’s crucial to speak with your doctor. Guidelines and research can provide a framework for care, Shah said, “but it’s really important that every patient and their clinician has a risk-benefit discussion for shared decision-making.”

That said, Shah recommends CAC testing for people at borderline or intermediate risk—meaning their estimated 10-year risk falls between 3% and 10%—echoing guidance from the American Heart Association.2When those patients are unsure about taking a statin, he said, “A calcium score would be useful because it kind of breaks the tie.”

Wilkinson, however, thinks people on the cusp shouldn’t necessarily rule themselves out. “I think for even those patients who fall maybe a little bit outside of those 10-year risk estimates, using calcium scoring to personalize their risk assessment can be very helpful,” Wilkinson said.

Keep in mind that even eligible patients may not have their CAC scan covered by insurance. According to the American Heart Association, the test usually costs $50 to $250 without insurance.3

It’s also important to discuss your results with a qualified clinician—even if you got the scan without a prescription. This is especially important if the results are abnormal, Yang said, as patients “really need to make sure that they have somebody that can appropriately follow up with them.”

Coronary Artery Calcium Scoring May Refine Heart Risk Estimate and Statin Decisions

Coronary Artery Calcium Scoring May Refine Heart Risk Estimate and Statin Decisions

TOPLINE

Adding coronary artery calcium (CAC) scoring to risk estimates helped better identify adults at lower and higher risk for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) events. People with no detectable CAC had lower observed risk, while those with CAC had higher observed risk, especially when the decision about starting a statin was uncertain.

METHODOLOGY

  • Researchers analyzed data from a US community-based cohort (MESA) to evaluate how CAC relates to ASCVD event rates across risk categories and groups of statin eligibility.
  • The analysis included 5698 adults without clinical ASCVD at baseline (mean age, 61.5 years; 52.8% women).
  • All participants underwent cardiac CT CAC scoring at baseline, which was categorized as 0, 1-99, or ≥ 100. Participants were also grouped based on the presence or absence of CAC ( CAC = 0 vs CAC > 0).
  • Researchers calculated 10-year PREVENT-ASCVD risk, defined four risk tiers (< 3%, 3% to < 5%, 5% to < 10%, ≥ 10%), and categorized statin eligibility as not recommended, considered, or recommended per the 2026 dyslipidemia guideline of the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association.
  • The outcome was incident ASCVD captured over 10 years.

TAKEAWAY

  • Participants not recommended for statins had 10-year ASCVD event rates of 1.2 per 1000 person-years with CAC = 0 vs 4.5 per 1000 person-years with CAC > 0.
  • Participants in the statin-considered group had 10-year ASCVD event rates of 2.7 per 1000 person-years with CAC = 0 and 5.2 per 1000 person-years with CAC > 0; those in the statin-recommended group had rates of 5.8 and 16.6 per 1000 person-years, respectively.
  • In participants with low-density lipoprotein-cholesterol levels of 70-189 mg/dL and no diabetes, CAC > 0 was linked to about twofold or higher event rates across PREVENT risk tiers.
  • Addition of CAC to PREVENT-based risk categories resulted in a categorical net reclassification improvement of 0.124, driven by appropriate reclassification of events and nonevents.

IN PRACTICE

“CAC may be most useful for contextualizing absolute risk and guiding the intensity of preventive efforts within contemporary prevention frameworks,” the researchers wrote.

SOURCE

This study was led by Rishi Rikhi, MD, MS, Wake Forest University School of Medicine, Winston-Salem, North Carolina. It was published online on July 15 in JACC.

LIMITATIONS

Researchers used baseline MESA data to calculate PREVENT risk, which may not have reflected current distributions of risk factors. CAC results were not blinded to clinicians or participants. MESA was a relatively healthy primary prevention cohort, which may have led to lower absolute rates of ASCVD events.

DISCLOSURES

This study received support from the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute and the National Center for Advancing Translational Science. Several authors reported receiving government research contracts and institutional or investigator grants from pharmaceutical, device, or biotechnology companies. Some authors reported receiving consulting fees, honoraria, participation on scientific or advisory boards, and industry-sponsored research support. One author reported owning equity in a health-related company.

This article was created using several editorial tools, including AI, as part of the process. Human editors reviewed this content before publication.

Coronary Artery Calcium Scoring May Refine Heart Risk Estimate and Statin Decisions

Coronary Artery Calcium Scoring May Refine Heart Risk Estimate and Statin Decisions

TOPLINE

Adding coronary artery calcium (CAC) scoring to risk estimates helped better identify adults at lower and higher risk for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) events. People with no detectable CAC had lower observed risk, while those with CAC had higher observed risk, especially when the decision about starting a statin was uncertain.

METHODOLOGY

  • Researchers analyzed data from a US community-based cohort (MESA) to evaluate how CAC relates to ASCVD event rates across risk categories and groups of statin eligibility.
  • The analysis included 5698 adults without clinical ASCVD at baseline (mean age, 61.5 years; 52.8% women).
  • All participants underwent cardiac CT CAC scoring at baseline, which was categorized as 0, 1-99, or ≥ 100. Participants were also grouped based on the presence or absence of CAC ( CAC = 0 vs CAC > 0).
  • Researchers calculated 10-year PREVENT-ASCVD risk, defined four risk tiers (< 3%, 3% to < 5%, 5% to < 10%, ≥ 10%), and categorized statin eligibility as not recommended, considered, or recommended per the 2026 dyslipidemia guideline of the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association.
  • The outcome was incident ASCVD captured over 10 years.

TAKEAWAY

  • Participants not recommended for statins had 10-year ASCVD event rates of 1.2 per 1000 person-years with CAC = 0 vs 4.5 per 1000 person-years with CAC > 0.
  • Participants in the statin-considered group had 10-year ASCVD event rates of 2.7 per 1000 person-years with CAC = 0 and 5.2 per 1000 person-years with CAC > 0; those in the statin-recommended group had rates of 5.8 and 16.6 per 1000 person-years, respectively.
  • In participants with low-density lipoprotein-cholesterol levels of 70-189 mg/dL and no diabetes, CAC > 0 was linked to about twofold or higher event rates across PREVENT risk tiers.
  • Addition of CAC to PREVENT-based risk categories resulted in a categorical net reclassification improvement of 0.124, driven by appropriate reclassification of events and nonevents.

IN PRACTICE

“CAC may be most useful for contextualizing absolute risk and guiding the intensity of preventive efforts within contemporary prevention frameworks,” the researchers wrote.

SOURCE

This study was led by Rishi Rikhi, MD, MS, Wake Forest University School of Medicine, Winston-Salem, North Carolina. It was published online on July 15 in JACC.

LIMITATIONS

Researchers used baseline MESA data to calculate PREVENT risk, which may not have reflected current distributions of risk factors. CAC results were not blinded to clinicians or participants. MESA was a relatively healthy primary prevention cohort, which may have led to lower absolute rates of ASCVD events.

DISCLOSURES

This study received support from the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute and the National Center for Advancing Translational Science. Several authors reported receiving government research contracts and institutional or investigator grants from pharmaceutical, device, or biotechnology companies. Some authors reported receiving consulting fees, honoraria, participation on scientific or advisory boards, and industry-sponsored research support. One author reported owning equity in a health-related company.

Visceral Belly Fat Can Make You Age Faster, Experts Warn

Visceral Belly Fat Can Make You Age Faster, Experts Warn

In middle-aged adults, greater visceral adipose tissue measured using DEXA was independently associated with higher phenotypic age acceleration in both men and women and with shorter leukocyte telomere length — another biomarker of biological aging — in women but not in men.

METHODOLOGY

  • Visceral adipose tissue is more metabolically active than subcutaneous fat, leading to greater risks for inflammation and cardiometabolic conditions. However, few studies have directly examined the association between DEXA-measured visceral adipose tissue and biological aging in middle-aged adults.
  • Researchers conducted a cross-sectional analysis using data from 4799 adults (mean age, 58 years; 2614 women) from a population-based cohort study conducted in Western Australia.
  • Whole-body DEXA was used to measure visceral adipose tissue mass, subcutaneous adipose tissue mass, and total body fat mass.
  • Phenotypic age acceleration was derived from chronological age and nine clinical biomarkers (lymphocyte percentage; mean cell volume; red blood cell distribution width; alkaline phosphatase, albumin, creatinine, glucose, and C-reactive protein levels; and white blood cell count).
  • Leukocyte telomere length was measured as the ratio of telomeric DNA to a single-copy control gene (T/S) in a subset of 1221 participants (51.8% women); shorter lengths indicated greater biological age.

TAKEAWAY

  • Each 100-g increase in visceral adipose tissue mass was associated with a 0.160-year (95% CI, 0.137-0.183) increase in phenotypic age acceleration in men and a 0.321-year (95% CI, 0.291-0.351) increase in women.
  • Each 1-SD increase in visceral adipose tissue was independently associated with a 1.397-year (95% CI, 1.197-1.596) increase in phenotypic age acceleration in men and a 1.919-year (95% CI, 1.738-2.099) increase in women.
  • In women, higher visceral adipose tissue mass was associated with shorter leukocyte telomere length, with each 100-g increase linked to a 0.007-unit decrease in the T/S ratio and each 1-SD increase linked to a 0.041-unit decrease in the ratio; no significant associations were found in men.

IN PRACTICE

“[The study] findings suggest that VAT [visceral adipose tissue] could be a specific marker of accelerated biological aging, independent of lifestyle factors and traditional anthropometric and other DXA-derived measures of obesity,” the authors of the study wrote.

SOURCE

The study was led by Riorden O’Shea, WA Country Health Service, Perth, Australia. It was published online in Obesity.

LIMITATIONS

The cross-sectional design prevented the establishment of causal relationships. The study population was highly homogeneous, which may have limited generalizability. Additionally, analysis of leukocyte telomere length was conducted only on a subset of participants.

DISCLOSURES

The cohort study received funding from the Federal Government of Australia, the Government of Western Australia, the National Health and Medical Research Council Equipment Grant scheme, and other sources. The authors declared no conflicts of interest.

 

The Massive Clinical Payoff of Full Lung Screening with Lung CT

The Massive Clinical Payoff of Full Lung Screening

Transcript generated from video captions. 

Hello. I’m Dr Maurie Markman, from City of Hope. I’d like to discuss over the next several minutes a very interesting modeling study that was recently reported in JAMA. The paper is entitled, “Lung Cancer Deaths Prevented and Life-Years Gained From Lung Cancer Screening.”

Very strong evidence-based data have demonstrated the utility of lung cancer screening in individuals with well-defined risk due to past and current smoking behavior. The specific characteristics have been well laid out in the literature, and really advertised to the public.

Key Points
  • Lung cancer screening benefits strongest in well-defined smoking-risk populations.
  • US Preventive Services Task Force recommends screening eligible high-risk adults.
  • 2024 screening uptake only ~20%-25%; some regions <10%.
  • 100% eligibility adherence modeled to triple deaths prevented + life-years gained.
  • Full uptake projected: 62,110 deaths prevented; 872,270 life-years gained/5 years.
Which interventions increase lung screening uptake?
How does screening adherence vary by US region?
What barriers limit primary care lung screening referrals?

The lung cancer screening strategy has been recommended in these well-defined populations, in fact, by the United States Preventive Service Task Force. Despite these facts, evidence very strongly suggests that, overall, only about 1 in 5, so 20% or maybe 25% of eligible individuals based upon risk factors were screened in 2024,and in certain regions of the country, that number was actually less than 10%.

The individuals in this report conducted a modeling study, addressing the question of what if we assumed that we could get the message to the public, also perhaps to primary care doctors and others involved in care? What would be the impact if this message got through and essentially 100% of those eligible in the United States for screening actually participated in these well-defined programs? What if we were able to encourage people to do this? What would be the impact?

Recognizing the limitations of any modeling exercise, this analysis revealed the following. If essentially 100% of eligible individuals were screened, the number of deaths prevented and life-years gained would increase threefold compared to the current situation. Overall, 62,110 lung cancer deaths would be prevented over 5 years, with a gain of 872,270 life-years total.

This is a remarkable achievement when you consider death, morbidity, mortality, pain, and suffering associated with these lung cancer events. All of this could occur if an established screening modality was more widely employed.

This is an important message, I think, as a community, physicians, public health officials, members of society in general, and family members with individuals who are potentially at risk. We need to figure out a better way of communicating the benefits of lung cancer screening.

I thank you for your attention.

Simpler Lung Cancer Screening Criteria Could Catch More Lung Cancers

Simpler Screening Criteria Could Catch More Lung Cancers

Offering lung cancer screening to everyone with a 20-year smoking history could expand access to screening, identify more cancers, and reduce disparities, new research suggests.

In an analysis of nearly 1 million US veterans, researchers estimated that a simplified approach to lung cancer screening — based on smoking duration rather than pack-years — would expand screening eligibility by nearly 30% and reduce potentially missed lung cancers by over 70%.

Those shifts would be especially pronounced among women and Black individuals — two groups that are underserved by current screening criteria.

The results, presented at the American Society of Clinical Oncology (ASCO) 2026, come at a time when some groups are revisiting their lung cancer screening guidelines.

Article Key Points

And they support smoking duration as a “simpler, more sensitive, and more equitable metric for screening eligibility,” researcher Brendan T. Heiden, MD, MPHS, Washington University School of Medicine in St. Louis, St. Louis, told meeting attendees.

Toward a Better Metric

Current guidelines from the US Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) recommend annual lung cancer screening with low-dose CT for adults aged 50-80 years who have at least a 20 pack-year smoking history and either currently smoke or quit within the past 15 years.

The 20 pack-year metric is equivalent to smoking a pack of cigarettes per day for 20 years. Because it requires patients to remember their smoking intensity over decades, it can be challenging to calculate and translate into care, Heiden said.

As it stands, few Americans who are eligible under current USPSTF guidelines actually undergo lung cancer screening, at about 15%-20%, Heiden noted. Meanwhile, mounting evidence suggests that many lung cancers occur in individuals who never meet those eligibility criteria.

Boosting screening uptake, Heiden said, is not enough: There’s a need to revisit eligibility itself to reach more high-risk individuals.

Some groups are already taking steps in that direction. Recently updated guidelines from the National Comprehensive Cancer Network (NCCN) added a category 2B recommendation supporting screening for individuals with at least a 20-year smoking history, regardless of pack-years. (The guidelines also say former smokers are eligible no matter how long ago they quit.)

For their study, Heiden’s team sought to estimate the performance of that smoking-duration metric against current USPSTF pack-year criteria. They used Veterans Health Administration data on over 980,000 veterans whose smoking histories were prospectively collected; lung cancer diagnoses were identified through the Veterans Affairs Central Cancer Registry.

Most of the included veterans (67%) had a smoking history; their mean age was 64 years, and 21% were Black.

Overall, the researchers found that basing eligibility on 20-year smoking duration would substantially expand access to screening: Among veterans with a smoking history, 68% qualified for screening under current USPSTF criteria compared with 87% using the smoking-duration approach.

The gains were especially pronounced among women and Black individuals (who, based on prior research, typically smoke less intensely than White males). Under USPSTF criteria, only about 55% of female and Black veterans qualified for screening compared with 83% for both groups under the smoking-duration criterion.

Importantly, Heiden said, people meeting the smoking-duration threshold remained at substantially elevated risk for lung cancer, suggesting the broader screening criteria were not merely capturing low-risk smokers.

The 5-year lung cancer incidence among veterans eligible under the smoking-duration approach was 1.59% — 11 times the rate of 0.14% among never smokers.

Perhaps most striking, Heiden said, the proportion of potentially missed cancers dropped from 13% with the pack-year metric to just 4% using the smoking-duration metric — a relative reduction of more than 70%.

Again, women and Black individuals would see the largest gains: Among Black veterans, potentially missed cancers fell from 25% to 6%, whereas among female veterans they declined from 22% to 7%.

Optimal Approach Still Unclear

The analysis had limitations, including a predominantly male veteran population whose smoking exposure was far greater than that of the general US population, indicating high inherent lung cancer risk.

But the results support what the NCCN has already done, according to Mary Reid, PhD, MSPH, BSN, a member of the group’s lung cancer screening guideline panel and chief of cancer screening, survivorship and mentorship at Roswell Park Comprehensive Cancer Center in Buffalo, New York.

“Doing the calculation for pack-years can be difficult,” Reid told Medscape Medical News. “Smoking duration is easier to calculate and really the way to go.”

The USPSTF does not comment on individual studies outside of its recommendation development process.

At the meeting, study discussant Katharine A. Rendle, PhD, called the work “impressive,” citing the size of the cohort and strength of the data.

It’s particularly noteworthy that the simpler screening criteria improved sensitivity for all veterans, while largely eliminating disparities, according to Rendle, of the Abramson Cancer Center at the University of Pennsylvania in Philadelphia.

Still, she said, further research could better define the optimal screening strategy.

“Smoking duration is a promising approach, but in my opinion, guidelines likely need to account for the underlying risk in the population,” Rendle said, noting that current smoking prevalence in the US population is about 10%.

She suggested future studies consider other smoking-duration thresholds, such as 30 or 40 years, and look at other outcomes, including life-years gained.

“It’s critical that we prioritize strategies that maximize potential benefit from screening — not just identify those at lung cancer risk — given downstream costs and burden on populations and healthcare systems,” Rendle said.

The study had no commercial funding. Heiden, Rendle, and Reid had no relevant disclosures.